Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1.2489 with a target of 1.2773 – 1.2892.
Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.2489 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.2285 – 1.2150.
Analysis: a descending correction appears to have formed as the fourth wave 4 of larger degree on the daily chart, with wave (С) of 4 completed and an ascending wave 5 unfolding inside. H4 chart: wave 1 of (1) of 5 is formed, and a downward correction is completed as wave 2 of (1) of 5. Apparently, the third wave 3 of (1) started developing on the H1 chart, with the first counter-trend wave of smaller degree i of 3 still forming inside. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 1.2773 – 1.2892. The level of 1.2489 is critical in this scenario as its breakout will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.2285 – 1.2150.
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