USDJPY: Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 25.02.22 – 04.03.22

Main scenario: consider short positions from corrections below the level of 116.32 with a target of 112.90 – 111.92. 

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 116.32 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 117.80 – 119.00. 

Analysis: an ascending wave of larger degree C has presumably started forming on the daily chart, with the third wave 3 of (1) of С unfolding as its part. On the H4 chart, there’s wave iii of 3 formed and a local correction developing as the fourth wave iv of 3. Apparently, a wave of smaller degree (а) of iv and wave (b) of iv have developed on the H1 chart, and wave (c) of iv continues developing. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to drop to the levels of 112.90 – 111.92. The level of 116.32 is critical in this scenario as a breakout will enable the pair to continue growing to the levels of 117.80 – 119.00.